ABOUT THE SITE
HOW THE PREDICTIONS WORK
I created this site in order to record my success in making stock predictions.
By making my stock picks available, I can use this site to my advantage. By demonstrating success, I have created a verifiable track record I can point to in the event I apply for a trading position with a firm! (I currently trade, but am self employed, I don't trade for a firm).
Actually, I've taken a temporary break from day trading, but plan to return to trading soon. I was very successful at daily day trading, and have posted a sample of my day trading brokerage records.
I've taken a break because I currently have money invested in a medium term investment. However, I plan to return to daily day trading soon.
In the meantime, I created this site so that I can use it as an outlet to make stock predictions, to keep my day trading skills sharp!
In order to simulate day trading, I make second by second predictions.
In order for them to be verifiable, I make the predictions live on Twitter. Once a prediction is made on Twitter, that prediction cannot be removed from my Twitter history. I believe that Twittering my predictions is probably the best method one can use to record their success.
If I was to instead make my predictions through a blog post, that would create potential problems. One can't make a prediction as quickly on a blog as you can on Twitter and, more importantly, a blog post can be edited after the fact! With Twitter, it proves that I made the prediction I claim to have made!
I accept followers on Twitter. These followers can follow my predictions live. If they wish, they can instead review the daily summary of my daily results, posted each evening, along with images for verification.
When I make a prediction on Twitter, it is NOT meant to be a recommendation that others a buy, sell, short or cover a stock or exchange traded fund. It is simply a prediction of my own!
IF A TWITTER FOLLOWER (OR SOMEONE WHO FOLLOWS MY WEBSITE) CHOOSES TO ACT ON MY PREDICTION, THEY DO SO AT THEIR OWN RISK, AND I HAVE NO LIABILITY AT ALL IN REGARD TO THE CONSEQUENCES!
FORMAT OF TWITTER PREDICTIONS
The Twitter predictions will appear as follows:
An example:
"B F 17.00"
"B F 17.00"
That means I predict that it's a good move to Buy Ford stock at ask price of 17.00...RIGHT NOW!
Each prediction is presented in the following form, with three elements: 1 2 3, where
1 = either B for "Buy", S for "Sell", SH for "Short", C for "Cover a short" AND
2 = the stock or ETF symbol AND
3 = the price of the stock or ETF named.
1 = either B for "Buy", S for "Sell", SH for "Short", C for "Cover a short" AND
2 = the stock or ETF symbol AND
3 = the price of the stock or ETF named.
To see my predictions, follow me on Twitter. Go to my Twitter profile and click on the "Follow" button.
Note that my Twitter feed will mainly post predictions only. Other posts I make, such as daily summaries etc., will be posted on the site.
On some days there will be no trades I'm aware of that provide a high enough benefit/cost ratio. On those days, no predictions will be Twittered.
I Twitter a message at the exact second I feel it's a good time to enter a trade! If it's 10:49 am and the ask price is $8.50, I will Twitter a message and make a buy prediction right then! The same process occurs when exiting the trade.
As mentioned, the prediction specifies the stock symbol and specifies whether to buy, sell, short or cover, along with the exact price to make the trade at!
Note: Unless otherwise noted, when I make a buy (or cover) prediction at a given price it means that price is currently displayed on the ask, not the bid. Similarly, when I make a sell (or short) prediction at a given price it means that price is currently displayed on the bid, not the ask.
I often close my trade predictions the same day they are opened. However, it's not rare for me to keep the trade open for several days.
I've found that it's not rare for my prediction to temporarily be unprofitable before they become profitable. This could mean that something unanticipated occurred, or it could mean that originally I felt the price was so low that I was willing to risk it going even lower in order to ensure I got it at that low price
It will not be rare for me to close a previous prediction of mine at a loss. This could mean that I feel that something very unanticipated has happened and I wish to minimize an expected loss, or it could mean that I feel that the trade would have been profitable in it's original form yet will be even more profitable by temporarily closing it out. An example of this would by buying Citigroup at $4.50 and seeing it fall to $4.48. At that point I may still feel that it will end above $4.50 before the end of the day, yet something else might make me think that the stock price will keep going down even further before it rebounds. In that case, after my original prediction to buy at $4.50, I might predict that sell at $4.48, buy back at $4.40 and finally sell at $4.53.
VERIFICATION OF PRICES
In order to verify the accuracy of my claims, I use the following process:
1) As soon as I feel the urge to Twitter a prediction, I first press the Screenshot button in order to save an image of the real-time bid/ask price.
2) I then immediately Twitter the text of my prediction.
Once the trading day is complete, I Screenshot the image of my Twitter recommendations.
That evening, I write a post summarizing the day's results, and include images for verification: All bid/ask images, and all Twitter predictions.
Also, Yahoo Finance provides interactive charts that show the price of a stock by the minute. These charts can be compared against the time that my bid/ask predictions are posted, in order to verify them.
Or one can simply follow my Twitter predictions, and you'll see that the price I use for predictions happens to match up with the price that your real-time quote streamer shows!
PREMARKET TRADES
It's fairly rare that I make a pre-market trade prediction, however it occasionally occurs.
ABOUT ME AND OTHER ASPECTS OF THE SITE
I'm a super-smart (and, I like to think, a super-nice) guy who enjoys statistics! If someone is able to learn more about trading by following my predictions, then so be it!
However, if it gets to the point where I have a large number of followers, I may decide to start charging followers a fee for access!
If word about my trading ability gets around and generates a large number of followers, that's an extra bonus. In that case, my site might start to earn significantly more advertising revenue from the site's ads.
If it turns out that any readers have profited by following my trades, and wish to give something back to me, I accept donations from readers.
As I mentioned earlier, one aim of my site is that I want to be noticed! I want my dramatic trading success to be noticed! In the event I apply for a trading position at a firm, I want to point to my my website like a resume, to demonstrate my success!
If it turned out that I was noticed by a financial firm that offered me employment and access to larger capital levels, that's something I would consider. However, I would weigh the opportunity versus my other options. Being self employed has its advantages.
LEGITIMACY OF RESULTS
Some people people might be concerned that I might be able to manipulate my trading predictions after the fact in order to artificially inflate my results. Let me address these concerns:
One concern might be that I might delete a prediction later in the day if it ends up going sour. Twitter makes this impossible. Once Twitter posts my prediction, there is no taking it back. It lists my entire Twitter history.
CONTACT ME
